DEL MAR, Calif. -- It’s that time again - Breeders’ Cup Saturday. The best of the world’s older horses have assembled at Del Mar, and the marine layer is slow to lift on an otherwise beautiful day here in Southern California.
The scratches have been the story this week, with further kerfuffle this morning: the top two contenders in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint are out; we also learned Kentucky Derby 150 winner Mystik Dan has been scratched from the BC Dirt Mile. The biggest, of course, was the scratch of Sovereignty earlier in the week. His absence from the Classic still resonates with track goers.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday offers great matchups, and you can read about those here. Every race seems to have some sort of top matchup, with almost “take a stand” type of spot to shoot at. Generally speaking, that points to big payouts, with Friday being a perfect example: the all BC Pick 5 paid 18,916-to-1. That’s the reason we play the ponies right there.
Let’s look at a few of the marquee races, and see if we can’t pick off some bets. If you’re betting the Breeders’ Cup - be sure to check out AmWager! They’ve got a 100% deposit match up to $150 available for new customers.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Race 7 Distaff. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. $2,000,000.
The Distaff offers a terrific field on an annual basis, and this year’s collection of runners is no different. We’ll see a big favorite in local runner 8 Seismic Beauty, from the ever-impressive Bob Baffert barn. She won the Grade 1 Hirsch last out, gearing down for an easy win over fellow BC starter Kopion. She’s won three straight, and comes in in great form. She’s a worthy favorite.
I’ll be watching 3 Cliquot, as she tries Grade 1 company for a second time. She is clearly on the improve, moving forward with each start. Trainer Brendan Walsh is having a dream 2025; could he cap it with yet another Grade 1? Cliquot gives him much more of a chance than her 10/1 morning line number suggests.
Top selections: 8-1-3-4.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Race 8 Turf. 1 ½ miles, turf. $5,000,000.
I wrote about this matchup the other day, but unequivocally for me the most interesting race is the Turf. 1 Rebel’s Romance is back to defend his title - again - and go for an unthinkable third straight BC Turf win. 8 Minnie Hauk comes in off a near-miss in the Arc de Triomphe, amongst Europe’s most important races. I expect those two to be the best runners in this field.
I am fascinated by a longshot runner here in 14 Ethical Diamond. He began his career running hurdles, meaning he has high-level athleticism and stamina. He’s recently moved to flat racing, and has won two consecutive races coming in. He’ll be a massive price on the outside, but never doubt the ability of the best European jocks to get their runners in place. I love him in exactas and trifectas, and will be placing a Place-Show bet on him.
Top selections: 8-1-14-2.
Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Race 9 Classic. 1 ¼ miles, dirt. $7,000,000.
The Classic took a big hit with the defection of Sovereignty, who spiked a fever earlier in the week and was removed from the field out of an abundance of caution. We trudge on with good news: 8 of the runners in this field have own Grade 1s.
Among them, is last year’s winner 7 Sierra Leone. He’s a wildly consistent horse, never finishing outside the top 3 in his 13 career starts; he’s been in the top 2 in 10 of those. He’s a machine, and should run well here again.
1 Fierceness is probably the most likely winner, but in a balanced field like this, he shouldn’t get bet much lower than 3/1. If he returns to his Grade 1 Pacific Classic form, he can win in this company. His best races may well have come right here at Del Mar, and he should put in a good effort today.
Two other older horses to watch: 5 Forever Young has looked physically impressive all week long, and after a year in which he was in the trifecta of both the Kentucky Derby and BC Classic, he should be taken seriously. 8 Mindframe comes in out of an ugly Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga, where he lost his rider, and his way. He didn’t keep up with the pack whatsoever once he lost his rider; generally, horses know the job and try to keep pace. He’s more than capable, having won three Grade 1s this year - but which Mindframe will show up?
Local favorite 9 Journalism has been doing Journalism things: the works look great, he’s looking great, etc. I simply think he is a level below the older runners in this field, and is going to have to show a dimension he previously hasn’t. The move to jockey Jose Ortiz makes a ton of sense, but Ortiz will likely have to find something that might not be there.
Top selections: 1-7-8-5.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$5 Pick 3, Starts 7 ($40): 8 / 1,8 / 1,5,7,8. Good Luck!