ARCADIA, Calif. -- Horse racing loves its conditions, from Maiden Claiming to non-winners of 3. Saturday’s Lure is one of those types of races.
The Lure, a mile turf race for $80,000, is open only to runners who haven’t won a significant stakes this year. So, while there may not be a ton of recent success amongst the runners, there are certainly many more than capable of winning here. Of the 7 runners, 5 have won in stakes company.
Lure, for whom the race is named, largely raced east of the Rockies. His best win was the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 1993, contested at Santa Anita. He won 14 career races in 25 starts, finishing 2nd 8 times. He was a gamer.
Let’s meet this year’s field, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re betting on Southern California racing - including the upcoming Breeders’ Cup - check out AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $150 right now for new customers.
The Lure. 1 mile, turf. 3+up. $80,000.
1. St Anthony. 5/2. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Neil Drysdale.
St Anthony comes in the favorite, which speaks to the conditions of this race: his last win was in August of 2024 at Monmouth, in a listed stakes. He’s not finished better than 4th since. Trainers use these kinds of spots to get confidence back into their horses; but at 5/2, there’s no way to bet St Anthony here.
Comment: value toss.
2. Mystic Spirit. 30/1. Jockey: Tyler Baze. Trainer: Edwin Alvarez.
The good news on Mystic Spirit: he has a win, at a mile, over the turf course at Santa Anita - and under Tyler Baze. The bad news: its his only turf win, and his best result on the turf since then is 5th place - in a $20,000 state-bred optional claimer. There go those conditions again.
Comment: first toss.
3. Watsonville. 5/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Mark Glatt.
Watsonville won the Grade 2 Mathis Mile last year at Santa Anita. Since then, he’s finished 5th, 7th, 5th, and 10th. My concern is the most recent two efforts, which weren’t much: he simply wasn’t competitive in either race. I’ll toss here in hopes I’m wrong.
Comment: toss.
4. Endlessly. 7/2. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Michael McCarthy.
Endlessly was a star in spring 2024, winning twice on the road to the Kentucky Derby. His owners decided to run him there, with Endlessly finishing a decent 9th in a field of 20. Since then, he hasn’t been the same, his best finish a distant 3rd in the Grade 3 American Stakes. He was nowhere to be found 2 back in the listed Wicker Stakes, run in similar conditions in July at Del Mar. He’s talented, but perhaps his best running days were in 2024.
Comment: include for talent, connections.
5. Goliad. 4/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Goliad is a throwback - an 8-year-old gelding making his 14th career start over the Santa Anita turf. He’s won 3 of those races, including the Grade 3 Thunder Road, which he won by sprinting to an early lead and simply hanging on at the end. There is only one other front-running type in the race - Nesso’s Lastharrah - so I’m hopeful Kimura, who was aboard for that Thunder Road win, will go for it early.
Comment: include.
6. Sumter. 8/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Sumter won this race last year, and since hasn’t won. He finished 2nd in the Grade 2 Hernandez, a sprint down the hill. He’s clearly still running well, but hasn’t put it together. I think this year’s collection of runners sets up poorly for him, so we’ll look elsewhere. Trainer Richard Mandella has had him working alongside Goliad, and Goliad has simply been better.
Comment: toss.
7. Nesso’s Lastharrah. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Peter Eurton.
Nesso’s Lastharrah comes in with the most positives of any horse in the race: he’s capable of getting the lead early, and keeping it; trainer Peter Eurton’s barn is hot right now; and jockey Hector Berrios is riding the Santa Anita turf as well as anyone. He’s 2-for-4 at the distance, and his final time in a win at Del Mar over the mile turf course would be fast enough to win this race. I have him - one of the 2 non-stakes winners in the field - on top.
Comment: most likely winner.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$.50 Late Pick 4, Starts Race 7 ($36): 3,8 / 3,6,7,8 / 4,5,7 / 2,10,11. Good Luck!