Ah, yes. Del Mar, where the surf meets the turf.
Like so many opening days at Del Mar, the handicapping was difficult: there are Saturday carryovers in both the Pick 6 and High 5.
The San Clemente went on hiatus after Covid, but returned last year in a rousing event. This year’s field features a potential superstar, and she’s surrounded by a talented cast. Let’s meet the field, and put our wager together for Del Mar.
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Grade 2 San Clemente. 1 mile, turf. 3-year-old fillies. $200,000.
1. Will Then. 4/1. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Jonathan Thomas.
Will Then enters this race as the clear second choice, and she deserves it: she’s 3-for-4 lifetime at the distance with her only loss at the non-conformist Kentucky Downs. Since making the move to flat racing, her only loss was in the Grade 2 Edgewood at Churchill Downs over Derby weekend. She lost to Nitrogen on that day, who may be the best 3-year-old in training, period. There’s no one of that quality in here, so she’s very live.
Comment: include.
2. Casalu. 6/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Casalu has been off since February, but before then won the Blue Northern Stakes over a mile on the turf at Santa Anita in late December. She’s a rare pure turf runner for trainer Bob Baffert, who also got a win from her down the hill in the Sweet Life in February. This type of layoff is almost never an issue for Baffert runners, and she’s got a knack for winning. The 6/1 price would be a gift in this company.
Comment: love the 6/1 price.
3. Miso Phansy. 12/1. Jockey: Armando Ayuso. Trainer: Leonard Powell.
Miso Phansy is the most likely Cal-bred winner in this field, having previously shown good ability over the mile distance. She nearly won the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes last out, going 1 ⅛ miles. She was closing furiously at the end of that race, and jockey Armando Ayuso will have to get her running in top gear far earlier than she did last time. I think the pace here will be tough for her, but wouldn’t be stunned to see her hit the board.
Comment: toss.
4. As Catch Can. 10/1. Jockey: Vincent Cheminaud. Trainer: Jonathan Thomas.
As Catch Can was part of a 4-way photo finish in the aforementioned Honeymoon, finishing within a length of the winner. As close as the finish was, it never felt like she was winning that race. She’s never won going two turns, either at Colonial or Woodbine. She might get a nice check here, but my sense is she’s outclassed.
Comment: toss.
5. Thought Process. 8/5. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
Thought Process will head to the gate the favorite, and a deserved one. Her only losses came on debut (no strike against), and in the Breeder’s Cup (double non-strike). She returned after a half-year layoff in June, wiring the field at Santa Anita. She looks the part, and if she’s even 80% of her former self, she wins here.
Comment: Most likely winner.
6. Amorita. 10/1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Amorita has done good running at the distance, having won twice in four lifetime attempts. She’s been worse than second only once in her last five races, and shows a ton of resolve during races. She’s likely to be the only speed which can keep pace with Thought Process early; look for her to try to rate today, but for it to not work.
Comment: toss.
7. Jungle Peace. 8/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
Jungle Peace is an enticing entrant at 8/1, with three wins and a 3rd by a head in four races stateside. If the Honeymoon were a mile, she’d be the winner, and almost certainly the 2nd favorite here; the layoff is the only concern here, but she’s run well after time off before. She’s absolutely live here.
Comment: live longshot.
8. Firenze Flavor. 12/.1 Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke. Trainer: Patrick Gallagher.
There have been multiple mentions of the Honeymoon, and we’ve finally arrived at its winner: Firenze Flavor. The 12/1 price is reflective of the connections; if this were Fresu and D’Amato, she’d likely be 6/1. Van Dyke hasn’t had a stellar 2025, but he’s better than 12/1, especially with a filly of this quality. She’s live off the break, especially in this company.
Comment: Another live longshot.
9. Silent Law. 10/1. Jockey: Mirco Demuro. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Silent Law is trying the turf for the first time, coming out of a number of good showings over dirt. This move feels more like a trainer attempting to figure out what a horse does best, rather than a move made with confidence. Jockey Mirco Demuro has already won at Del Mar, his first day riding at Del Mar. Less surprising things than Baffert winning a stakes at Del Mar have happened; we’ll play against.
Comment: toss.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
($24) $3 Late Pick 3: 5 / 1,2,3,9 / 7,11. Good luck!