INGLEWOOD, Calif.— Friday morning, UFC President and CEO Dana White announced that No. 1 lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan had to pull out of the main event of UFC 311 in Los Angeles after experiencing back pain while cutting weight. Although unfortunate for those looking forward to seeing the rematch between Tsarukyan and the Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev, the door was left open for Renato Moicano to step in for a title fight.
When announcer and famous podcaster Joe Rogan asked the No. 10 contender at the ceremonial weigh-ins what it was like to get the call on only one day’s notice, Moicano answered in a way that he has very similarly before.
“I don’t give a f***,” Moicano said to an erupting crowd. “I can not afford to f****** lose, and that’s true. It doesn’t matter if it’s the champion or not, tomorrow I am winning.”
Makhachev vs. Moicano
There is no doubt that the No. 10 contender in the lightweight division will be the underdog against a three-time defending champion who is on a 14-fight win streak. But the reason that Moicano might not have as big of an advantage is that one of the best parts of his game is not in the ring at all, but instead before the match.
His former opponent, Beneil Dariush — now the odd man out and left off of the 311 card — talked about it best during the media day press conference on Wednesday.
“He’s a veteran,” Dariush said. “He has a lot of fights, a lot of experience… I think what makes him special is his game planning. Him and his team are able to put together a really good game plan. For example his last fight you could say [Benoit Saint-Denis] is more athletic, more dangerous… You have to have the skills don’t get me wrong but the strategy to be able to pull off [the early takedown on Saint-Denis], I think that was the change in direction of the fight.”
Any advantage that Moicano would have in strategizing against Makhachev might not be relevant because he only learned he would have the title shot the day before the fight. Not only this, but game planning isn’t necessarily the hard part of beating Makhachev.
Makhachev’s strategy is typically relatively simple and easy to spot, but impossible to stop. He is efficient on his feat with lethal strikes, setting up the inevitable single or double-leg takedown that is seen in the middle stages of rounds. When Makhachev gets to guard or half-guard is when he can be the most dangerous. His intense ground-and-pound along with the constant threat of his arsenal of submissions makes it tough for an opponent to fight for long on the mat with Makhachev.
So what can Moicano do that will help him win this fight? “Money” Moicano’s British ju-jitsu skills are severely underrated. Ten of Moicano’s wins come by way of submission, but his submission average per 15 minutes is extremely low at only 0.56. Despite all this, his ability to stay on his feet will likely be what determines the outcome of the fight.
Moicano has great takedown defense at 72.2%, however, his opponent has a takedown accuracy of over 50% and averages over three takedowns every 15 minutes which shows the volume and efficiency of attacks that Moicano will have to avoid. It will not be a surprise if Makhachev controls the fight by pushing the pace and trying to engage the ground game early.
Makhachev’s feelings for his next opponent were rather similar to Moicano’s toward his: it didn’t seem to matter who they were going against as long as it was for the title.
“When the gladiator [comes] to the arena, he never [chooses his] opponent,” Makhachev said. “That’s why I never [choose]. Just send me [the] contract, that’s it. [Saturday] night, it doesn’t matter who [is] going to step into the cage, I am going to smash them.”
Makhachev and Moicano will fight on Saturday when the main card starts at 7 p.m. on ESPN+.