NEW ORLEANS -- A few weeks ago, I spoke with Tampa Bay Downs track announcer Jason Beem as part of my podcast, The Horse Racing Happy Hour. Tampa’s road to the Derby started in earnest there two weeks back.
I asked him if he had a Kentucky Derby favorite, as one does this time of year. “I don’t really pay attention to the Derby trail until the Lecomte. When is that?”
Well, it’s today. And it’s the first of the 20 point races on the road to Derby 151. This seems like a reasonable spot to stop and remind folks how the Derby trail works.
Beginning in September with the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill, horses can earn points by winning or placing amongst the top finishers in designated points races. Until this point, most races offered 10 points to the winner. The exception in the early part of the trail - largely made up of 2-year-old races - is the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, which awards 30 points to the winner.
The Lecomte is the first in the phase of 20 point races, which will continue around the country. As we pointed out previously, Louisiana’s prep for Derby 151 - the Louisiana Derby - is run on the earliest date of any of the win-and-in prep races. So, it would make sense that Louisiana’s 20 point prep would be the first on the calendar. After the 20 point races are 50 point races, finally culminating with a series of 100 point races. Louisiana’s path will next feature the Risen Star (50) and Louisiana Derby (100).
There are 14 entered in today’s Lecomte. Let’s meet some contenders, some longshots, and put a wager together.
Fair Grounds, NOLA. Race 12. Grade 3 Lecomte. 1 1/16 miles, dirt. 3YO. $250,000.
Top-Tier Contenders
13. Built. 3/1 Jockey: Jareth Loveberry. Trainer: Wayne Catalano.
Built gets top billing in this article, as he won the Gun Runner, the race which precedes this one. It was his first time trying two turns, and trainer Wayne Catalano - who hit the 3,000 career wins mark in 2024 - had to be thrilled to see how much he embraced it. He had his way in that race, getting the lead and setting tepid fractions. To jockey Jareth Loveberry’s credit, that’s the job. He won’t have that set up today, but he did show an ability to make a late move in his maiden win at Keeneland in October. He’s got a shot here, and should he win, this son of Hard Spun will be getting a ton of attention.
11. Disco Time. 9/2. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox.
Disco Time comes in 2-for-2 in his young career, both over one turn at Churchill Downs. He has all the makings of a major Derby contender: royal breeding, serious connections, and an unblemished record against high level competition. We’ve watched the progeny of Not This Time show up big in these spots before, and it’s clear Cox has been shooting for this spot with this colt. After his second win at Churchill, Disco Time was immediately shipped to NOLA to begin the Derby qualifying phase of his career. We’ll put him on top in our wagers.
4. Magnitude. 6/1. Jockey: José Ortiz. Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Sometimes in wagering, you have to go back to the well. Jockey José Ortiz has been tearing it up at Fair Grounds, winning on an incredible 30% of his mounts at the current meet. Ortiz made the decision to ride in Kentucky and Louisiana last year, in addition to his usual trip to Saratoga, and the results have been off the charts great. Trainer Steve Asmussen is North America’s all-time leading trainer, and has teamed with Ortiz to win 10 or their most recent 30 mounts together. Magnitude was run off the screen by Built last out, but draws a much more favorable post position, and should benefit from the experience.
Second-Tier & Longshot Contenders
6. Golden Afternoon. 20/1. Jockey: Axel Concepcion. Trainer: Nicolas Vaccarezza.
Lecomte day will mark a passing of the torch from father to son, and Golden Afternoon will be the torch-bearer. Nick Vaccarezza will take the metaphorical reins from his father Carlo, and take over the training leadership of the Vaccarezza barn. This would be a remarkable first victory in his early career - his X.com profile still says “Future Racehorse Trainer” - given Golden Afternoon has never tried the dirt. With wet conditions in NOLA, he may take well to the track, but that’s incredibly difficult to know. An interesting one to include in exactas and trifectas, as he has good experience going two turns.
1. Innovator. 10/1. Jockey: Jaime Torres. Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas.
The Torres - Lukas combo won a series of graded stakes with Seize The Grey last year, and will try to run it back with Innovator. A son of Authentic, winner of the Covid-affected September Derby and Breeder’s Cup Classic that fall, Innovator is bred to go further than he has thus far in his career. Like many of Lukas’s trainees - whom he runs into shape rather than running them into shape - has already started 7 times, with 5 finishes in the top 2. The only issue: just one win amongst those runs. He’s been running in very good company to this point, and if he’s able to get a lead, we’ve seen Torres rate as well as anyone.
2. Maximum Promise. 10/1. Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
Last year’s Oaks and Derby winners are back with Maximum Promise, whose early successes faced a setback after an absolute romp in his August maiden win at Ellis Park. Trainer Kenny McPeek is consistently around 15% in almost all categories, with one notable exception: horses coming back after a layoff like this one, which he wins at 19%. He’s extremely skilled at getting horses back into racing shape, and then placing them in the proper spot. This sets up to be within the same formula, and while for most trainers this would just be a spot to get their horse back on the track, McPeek is far more likely to pull a surprise.
The Sporting Tribune Wagers:
FG Race 8. Late Pick 5, $.50 base wager
3,4 / 1,2,3,6 / 7,12 / 1,6,10 / 1,11,13 Wager Cost: $72.
FG Race 10. Late Pick 3, $3 base wager
7,12 / 1,6,10 / 1,11,13 Wager Cost: $36.