-1600x900.webp)
Rattle N Roll won the Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs on Friday, in front of a winter jacket-clad crowd which largely spent the time between races indoors. Despite its best efforts, the bright sunshine that glared throughout the day did little to warm spectators on a day that never reached 40°.
Thanksgiving weekend always marks the end of dirt and turf racing in Kentucky, as the circuit moves to Turfway Park for 4 months. The eyes on North American racing look to South Florida, SoCal, Louisiana, and Arkansas, as those on the Derby and Oaks Trails try to earn enough points to qualify for either race.
If you’re unfamiliar with the Road to the Kentucky Derby, contenders earn points by finishing in the top 5 spots in designated races. Citizen Bull, trained by Southern California-based Bob Baffert, sits atop the leaderboard by virtue of his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar at the beginning of the month.
Today’s Kentucky Jockey Club offers ⅓ of the points offered by the Juvenile: the winner will earn 10 points toward a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. In many years, horses need just north of 40 points to qualify. There are several 50 and 100 point races later into the spring.
With the scratch of 6 Clock Tower, we’ll have a field of 9. Let’s meet them.
Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. 1 1/16 M, dirt. 2YO. $400,000.
1. He’s Not Joking. 8/1. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Josie Carroll
He’s Not Joking will make his first start south of the border, as all his runs have come over the synthetic surface at Woodbine outside Toronto. He was last seen dominating the Grade 3 Grey Stakes - named for Earl Grey - which he won by 4 lengths over other 2-years-olds at Woodbine. The good news about his run in the Grey: it was at the same distance they’re running today. The bad news: it’s very difficult to handicap how well any horse will travel for the first time, and if they’ll like a new surface. He’s a reluctant toss, but wouldn’t be a surprise winner.
Comment: Toss.
2. Jonathan’s Way. 5/2. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Phil Bauer.
Trainer Phil Bauer had a career best in earnings last year, and is on track to get close to that number again. While his win percentage overall is slightly lower, he’s been good in big spots like this. Bauer trains Two Sharp, a young filly who won last week’s Grade 3 Chilukki, also at Churchill. Jonathan’s Way comes in off a disappointing 7th in the BC Juvenile, after an impressive, never-in-doubt romp in the Grade 3 Iroquois in September at Churchill Downs. Last year, West Saratoga won the Iroquois on his way to a starting spot in the Derby; Jonathan’s Way appears to be well on his way to that. He can win here, and should he win today, worthy of some Eclipse votes for top 2-year-old male. His recent works at Churchill shows a horse that loves the course. Must include.
Comment: Top Contender.
3. Tiztastic. 5/1. Jockey: Cristian Torres. Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Tiztastic, like He’s Not Joking, comes in having done his best work to this point on another surface. In his case, it’s not just a surface, but a different type of track altogether: the quirky and difficult to handicap Kentucky Downs, an all-turf track on the Tennessee border. Trainer Steve Asmussen decided to run him back in the Grade 3 over this course in late October, finishing a solid 2nd. The field in the Street Sense wasn’t as good as this one; the winner, Sovereignty, had yet to win a race before dominating that one. While Tiztastic can win here, he’ll have to take a huge step forward to do it.
Comment: Reluctant Toss.
4. Dapper Moon. 8/1. Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. Trainer: Dallas Stewart.
Dapper Moon has run his 2 most recent races in spots like this: first in October’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, followed by the aforementioned Street Sense. He was part of the early pace in the Street Sense, before fading. His form seems to suggest he’ll be better over a single turn. His first two races, both at Saratoga, were impressive sprints; his move to route races has been a dud to this point. Expect that form to continue today.
Comment: Toss.
5. Filoso. 8/1. Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Chad Summers.
Filoso started his career this past summer at Saratoga, where he was a wandering, unfocused 4th in his first career start. It took only a 2nd trip to the track to break his maiden, which he did impressively over the mile course in upstate New York. He then tried two turns at Keeneland, which ended in a 3rd place finish behind East Avenue, whom no one was beating that day. A son of rising stallion City of Light, he seems to need experience to learn new tactics. We won’t hold that against him here, and he makes the Trib’s list of must-includes this week.
Comment: Include.
7. Sonic Skidaddle. 6/1. Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
Another son of City of Light, Sonic Skidaddle - winner of the best name in the field - will try routing for the first time today. This is common in 2-year-old campaigns, as most horses begin their careers sprinting prior to running longer races. Trainer Brendan Walsh is well-known for his acumen in developing younger horses, and Sonic Skiddadle appears to be following a solid career arc: wins in his 2nd ever race, improving on the first effort. A step into this kind of company makes complete sense, and we often see young horses relish this type of distance the first time. Walsh’s horses hit at 14% going sprint to route, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione is winning a solid 20% of his starts this month at Churchill. Include.
Comment: Rising contender.
8. First Resort. 9/2. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Eoin Harty.
First Resort adds his name to a couple lists of horses in this field: first, those trying two turns for the first time, and second, those switching to dirt for this race. First Resort’s last race was in the Grade 1 Summer Stakes, a one-turn mile turf race at Woodbine. He finished a good 3rd after he was bumped at the start, and pushed his career earnings over $100,000 in just his 3rd lifetime start. Prior to that, he was a good 2nd in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, where he did most of the work on the lead. He’ll make the list of includes because of one reason: jockey Luis Saez, who is on pace to win the Churchill riding title, and easily.
Comment: Include.
9. Render Judgment. 12/1. Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
Bettor alert: Render Judgment will be nowhere near 12/1 when we get to post time. The combination of Hernandez, Jr. and McPeek just did something no one has ever done: win the KY Derby, Oaks, and Clark Stakes all in the same year. (Jockey Isaac Murphy is the only other jockey to sweep these races; he did so in 1890). Render Judgment ran first at Keeneland in early October, rallying for 2nd in a 7 furlong race featuring 10 opponents; McPeek immediately turned him around at Churchill to run over this course, at this distance - and the payoff was a maiden win. In that race, he sat just off the pace, and pounced; that will pay dividends today. We’ll put Render Judgment on top, and try to get somewhere around 5/1.
Comment: Top Contender.
10. Redacted. 30/1. Jockey: Edgar Morales. Trainer: Dallas Stewart.
The 2nd of the Stewart trainees, Redacted has run a single time, a 2nd-place finish over a sloppy track at Churchill. That was in restricted company, and he makes a huge step up into this group. He’s a Brilland Farm homebred, so I understand the motivation to try to get this son of Honor Code into the graded stakes ranks. Jockey Edgar Morales has had a decent month at Churchill, winning 8 races; this race, however, appears to be a step too far for Redacted.
Comment: First Toss.
The Sporting Tribune’s Play:
$2 Pick 3, Starts Race 9: 1,3 / 1,4,9 / 2,8,9 Ticket Cost: $36. Good Luck!