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DEL MAR, Calif. -- Breeders’ Cup has come and gone, but the racing in San Diego continues. Del Mar hosts the SoCal circuit’s action until December, when the action heads to Cypress, CA and Los Alamitos before its return to Arcadia and Santa Anita on its traditional day-after-Christmas opener.
Breeders’ Cup was a terrific 2 days of racing, and the track showed itself to be fair to all types of runners. That has continued in the weeks following at Del Mar, and sets up some good wagering opportunities moving forward. This weekend’s feature is the Grade 3 Native Diver, a mile and an eighth race over the dirt track for older horses. Native Diver was a star horse in the 1960s, racing an amazing 81 times, winning 37 of those efforts. At one point in 1964-1965, at ages 5 and 6, he won 8 straight handicaps, the equivalent of graded stakes at the time. Let’s meet the 6 runners in this year’s rendition.
Race 8. Grade 3 The Native Diver. 1 1/8M, dirt. 3+up. $100,000.
1. Mirahmadi. 6/1. Jockey: Martin Garcia. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
The first of two Baffert trainees in the field, Mirahmadi is named for Frank Mirahmadi, long-time announcer at Santa Anita. He was a much heralded million dollar purchase, but took a while to break his maiden and win his first race. The good news about that: it was his last race, and it was over 2 turns. This race will require him to go the furthest he’s ever traveled, but his breeding says no issue: Into Mischief on top, Malibu Moon on the dam side. This will be only the 2nd time he’s not favored entering the starting gate in his career; the move for jockey Juan Hernandez to ride Ultra Power instead of him also speaks volumes.
Comment: Leave out.
2. Ultra Power. 2/1. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Ultra Power’s connections alone will sink this horse’s odds - the Hernandez/ Baffert duo are winning an absurd 38% of their races together at the current Del Mar meet. If you do anything at about 17% in horse racing, it’s a top number; to more than double that is exceptional. 2 races back, Ultra Power ran them off their feet at Del Mar over the 2 turn mile. He followed that up, however, with a 3rd place as part of a blanket finish last out at Santa Anita - against Tarantino, who is also in this field. Can Ultra Power win here? Of course. Is it worth the terrible odds we’re likely to get? Absolutely not. We’ll look elsewhere to get value - despite the fact that Baffert has won this race the last 3 years.
Comment: Include in longer tickets; can win.
3. Skinner. 5/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: John Shirreffs.
It’s impossible to know, but one can’t help but wonder how good Skinner’s career would be had he been given the opportunity to run in more races like this one. He has a single victory in his 11 race career - in a maiden field - before his connections threw him into the finest company on the west coast, including 6 straight starts in stakes races. He went off as the post time favorite in this race last year, finishing a good 2nd to Mr Fisk in that race. Half the horses in this field will try to be part of the front-running group, including both horses inside of Skinner; he’ll need to have his best closing turn of foot to get there. Connections clearly used his last start over 6 ½ furlongs to get him ready for this one, including a change in tactics that had him much closer to the leaders throughout the race. Second off the layoff and sprint to route, usually terrific angles for trainers, are both unfortunately dismal this year for Shirreffs. Skinner is talented enough, but the numbers say look elsewhere.
Comment: Hunch play, but toss.
4. Salesman. 10/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Richard Mandella.
Salesman enters the race 0-for-2024, with 3 starts in graded stakes company. His last win was on Breeders’ Cup Saturday of 2023 - at Santa Anita - in a race going a mile and ⅝. He looked fairly comfortable in his last workout, but otherwise his performances have been below subpar. His last effort in Fresno in October resulted in a loss by over 5 lengths against significantly lesser company. It’s hard to see a way Salesman wins this race.
Comment: Toss.
5. Tarantino. 3/1. Jockey: Edwin Maldonado. Trainer: Peter Eurton.
Tarantino has done a bit of everything in his career: sprinted on both turf and dirt, gone long over both. He’s seen all kinds of company, from stakes to claimers. Frankly, his record is likely what Skinner’s would look like had he been in this type of company his entire career: 4 wins, with 13 total finishes in the money in 24 starts. Trainer Peter Eurton showed his hand with his last start, putting him on dirt for a 2 turn, longer race in preparation for this one. Good news? He bested Ultra Power in that one. Jockey Edwin Maldonado has excelled at Del Mar, winning this race 2 years ago aboard Defunded. We’ll use him on top here to get the most value, and hope Eurton has found the right buttons to push with Tarantino.
Comment: Top choice.
6 Mixto. 5/2. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
There may be no better example of trainer Doug O’Neill’s approach than Mixto, as his barn’s rally call is “Why Not Us?” Mixto is precisely that: lots of 2nd and 3rd place (or worse) finishes before a massive run and win in this year’s Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He followed it up with a disappointing run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but few will hold that high-quality race against him. Simply put: Mixto is a difficult horse to handicap. Can he win here? Sure. Will he? The numbers are against it. We’ll toss, but only because the 5/2 price is far too short on a horse with 2 lifetime wins in 15 starts.
Comment: Reluctant toss.
The Sporting Tribune Play:
$10 Exacta: 5 with 2,3,6. Ticket cost: $30. Good Luck!
WHAT’S COMING UP
The day after Thanksgiving is a huge day of racing at Churchill Downs, including the Clark, so we’ll have coverage of that for you right here at the Trib. The Road to the Kentucky Derby picks up the week after with the Remsen - whose 2023 rendition gave us Belmont and Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch, and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone. We’ll do our best to give you a great wager for that day, too.
Happy Thanksgiving to you, and your loved ones. See ya next week!