We’ve reached the end of the Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar — and that means it’s time for the freshmen.
Del Mar hosts the Grade 1 Debutante on Saturday, the top race for 2 year-old fillies in Southern California. We’ll see the usual suspects - trainers Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill, Phil D’Amato, and Tim Yakteen — and the crop this year is very good.
The boys will run Sunday in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, closing day at Del Mar. The SoCal scene moves back to Santa Anita, which whose races we’ll preview next week.
Let’s meet the field for the Grade 1 Debutante, and get our wager together.
Del Mar. Race 4. Grade 1 Debutante. 2YO Fillies. $300,000.
1. Proud Starlet. 15/1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Tim Yakteen.
Proud Starlet has run only once, winning easily in her debut at Del Mar at the end of August. She started well, and pulled away from the field, cruising to an easy 4½ length win. She’s not the top contender here, but I think the 15/1 number is far too high.
She's a legit threat to hit the board, and should be included in any exotic play. Fun fact: her dad, Mendelssohn, finished last in the Kentucky Derby, and was a $3,000,000 purchase at Keeneland in 2016.
Comment: Include in exacta, trifecta plays.
2. Nooni. 4/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
In horse racing, if you do anything at 18% or better, it’s an exceptional number. Baffert and Hernandez have combined to win 37 of their 88 mounts at Del Mar, or 42%.
This is almost triple the exceptional line, and I expect it to continue here. Nooni is a $1.8M purchase, and has shown great talent in both of her races.
She'll be pushed here, but I expect her to respond in kind. We’ll put her on top.
Comment: Most likely winner.
3. So There She Was. 15/1. Jockey: Antonio Fresu. Trainer: Doug O’Neill.
O’Neill went ahead and ruined our weekend last week when Mixto crossed the line first in the Pacific Classic, at the longest odds on the board. O’Neill ran So There She Was in the Debutante at Churchill Downs prior to her maiden win; if she can build on her last two efforts, she could be the longshot winner here.
She’s a well-bred daughter of Munnings out of a Take Charge Indy mare.She should have no class issue with this group.
Comment: Live longshot.
4. Vodka With A Twist. 7/2. Jockey: Mike Smith. Trainer: Phil D’Amato.
Vodka With A Twist finished a good 2nd in the Grade 3 Sorrento last out to Nooni, who will be the favorite in this one. She won the aforementioned Debutante at Churchill Downs, and broke her maiden at the highest level at Churchill.
Both of the Churchill races came over a wet track, but she showed last out at Del Mar she can run well in dry conditions. She’ll need to take a step forward to win on Saturday, and while it’s not out of the question, lean on Nooni until she shows otherwise.
Comment: include in exactas and trifectas.
5. Night Beacon. 20/1. Jockey: Kyle Frey. Trainer: Ryan Hanson.
Jockey Kyle Frey won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last year, and with it a majority of the million dollar purse. He was aboard Mixto, the longest shot in the field, and he’ll likely have another chance to win a Grade 1 aboard the longest show on the board here.
Emily Ellingwood had mount for Night Beacon’s first two starts, but the connections have made the wise decision to give Frey a shot. The fractions she ran in her maiden win at Santa Anita are good enough to be mega-competitive in this field.
Can she recapture that form? Assume she won’t and play against her.
Comment: Toss.
6. Tenma. 4/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
It was tempting to make Tenma the favorite in this one, as she’s the lone late dirt speed in the field. If it gets too hectic out front amongst top contenders Nooni and Vodka With A Twist, it could be Tenma that picks up the pieces and the check.
She looked impressive on debut with a come-from-behind win, a rarity amongst first time starters. I went back and watched her recent workout at Del Mar, and she looked sharp.
There is a give-away in how Baffert’s trainees workout: In Tenma’s case, her timed workouts are at 5 furlongs, which is typical across the sport; a horse like Nooni is being timed at 5, then 6 furlongs. When you see the 5 and 6 pattern, it means that Baffert thinks the horse is in top condition and is ready to win.
Comment: Second most-likely winner.
7. Jack’s Magic Girl. 8/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: O J Jauregui.
Given the race conditions in Southern California, it’s common to see horses that have previously run on turf show up in dirt races — and that’s exactly what we get here with Jack’s Magic Girl, a winner over a mile on the turf at Del Mar on debut.
If one goes purely by the numbers, this horse has a huge chance: Trainer O J Jauregui hits at 31% going turf to dirt, and his horses win at 24% recently going from route races (a mile or longer) to sprints. She comes in off a come-from-behind win in her maiden race, joining Tenma as the other late speed.
Her ceiling is a win and her basement dead-last. One thing is certain: If she spots Nooni the kind of lead she spotted the field in her debut, she’ll lose by open lengths.
Comment: Include in exotics.
The Sporting Tribune’s Play:
Pick 3, starts race 4: 2 / 2,7 / 4,5,6 $5 Pick 3 = $30.